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Shock result as Kallithea defy the odds to beat Lamia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kallithea beat Lamia 2-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.06 xG and Lamia 1.36 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.85 / defence 1.49 against Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 16/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kallithea 29% | Draw 27% | Lamia 43%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 50%, Lamia 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kallithea's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Lamia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.56 PPG, Lamia 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kallithea win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights