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Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Kallithea 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Kallithea 0-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.34 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.53 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kallithea fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.99 / defence 1.33 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.04 / defence 1.14, drawn from 20/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kallithea 33% | Draw 25% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 45%, Aris Thessalonikis 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kallithea's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Kallithea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights