Kalamata vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalamata vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kalamata host PAOK at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.22 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalamata, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kalamata have posted 2W 1D 2L at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAOK stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PAOK — 0.68 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.22). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kalamata, 0 for PAOK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Oct 2026, ended 3–1 with Kalamata winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kalamata in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAOK in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kalamata 67% and PAOK 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kalamata 56% | PAOK 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.74 xG and PAOK 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 1.055 / defence 1.448 | PAOK attack 1.263 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Kalamata games / 35 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalamata 36% | Draw 24% | PAOK 40%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | PAOK 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalamata 80% | PAOK 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 36% | Draw 24% | PAOK 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 71% | xG Kalamata 1.74 / PAOK 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 1.055 / def 1.448 | PAOK attack 1.263 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: PAOK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
1.85
PAOK xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs PAOK kick off?
Kalamata vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs PAOK part of?
Kalamata vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 36% chance of winning, PAOK a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Kalamata and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and PAOK?
Record (1 meetings): Kalamata 1W | Draws 0 | PAOK 0W.
What form are Kalamata and PAOK in?
Kalamata (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kalamata's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against PAOK's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Kalamata's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
36%
2.81
24%
4.11
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Kalamata xG
Total xG
3.58
1.85
PAOK xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
6%
17.82
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Kalamata and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.85 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalamata come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Kalamata is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (6W 0D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Kalamata — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kalamata's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Kalamata are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
The Goals Picture
Kalamata are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; PAOK in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and PAOK in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while PAOK have gone 6W 0D 3L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalamata at home or PAOK away?
Kalamata's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalamata at home: 1.75 PPG; PAOK away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalamata and PAOK runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Kalamata
0
Draws
0
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and PAOK?
From 1 meetings on record, Kalamata have won 1, PAOK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalamata and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when PAOK 1-3 Kalamata.
Who has won more matches between Kalamata and PAOK?
Kalamata have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kalamata at 75%, PAOK at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kalamata and 100% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kalamata's games and 100% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalamata vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kalamata's matches and 100% of PAOK's.
Do Kalamata and PAOK tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAOK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.