Kalamata vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalamata at 35%, yet in-form OFI provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kalamata vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kalamata and OFI meet at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalamata's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, OFI are the stronger side — 1.27 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Kalamata have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, OFI in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Kalamata — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalamata 67% versus OFI 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kalamata 33% | OFI 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.47 xG and OFI 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 0.902 / defence 1.404 | OFI attack 1.028 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 0.998. Data: 3 Kalamata games / 29 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kalamata 35% | Draw 32% | OFI 33%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | OFI 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalamata are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalamata if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kalamata 67% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 35% | Draw 32% | OFI 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Kalamata 1.47 / OFI 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 0.902 / def 1.404 | OFI attack 1.028 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.484 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Kalamata (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
1.44
OFI xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs OFI kick off?
Kalamata vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs OFI part of?
Kalamata vs OFI is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 35% chance of winning, OFI a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kalamata the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kalamata and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalamata and OFI in?
Kalamata (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D. OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalamata's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — OFI's attack (1.03x) against Kalamata's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
The sample (3/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalamata Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.16
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kalamata xG
Total xG
2.91
1.44
OFI xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Kalamata and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.44 for OFI, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalamata come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Kalamata — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalamata are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: OFI in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and OFI in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while OFI have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Kalamata or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalamata have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, OFI in 67%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalamata 67%, OFI 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Kalamata and 33% for OFI.
On the defensive side: OFI in 67%; Kalamata have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Kalamata's recent matches and 33% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalamata vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kalamata's recent games and 33% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalamata and OFI tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, OFI in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.