Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Iraklis 1908 take on Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos meet at Kaftanzoglio Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Iraklis 1908's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Levadiakos arrive in superior form — a 0.97 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Iraklis 1908 half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Iraklis 1908 33% | Levadiakos 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Iraklis 1908 33% | Levadiakos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.22 xG and Levadiakos 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.657 / defence 1.277 | Levadiakos attack 0.918 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 0.998. Iraklis 1908's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Iraklis 1908's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Iraklis 1908 games / 29 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 34% | Draw 36% | Levadiakos 31%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Levadiakos 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Iraklis 1908 33% | Levadiakos 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 34% | Draw 36% | Levadiakos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 53% | xG Iraklis 1908 1.22 / Levadiakos 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.657 / def 1.277 | Levadiakos attack 0.918 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.484 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Levadiakos xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 34% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-D-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Iraklis 1908's attack rating (0.66) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.92x) against Iraklis 1908's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (3/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
36%
2.81
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.39
1.17
Levadiakos xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.17 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Iraklis 1908 have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Iraklis 1908 against 0.00 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Iraklis 1908) and 0% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Iraklis 1908 and 33% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Iraklis 1908 have failed to score in 67% of games; Levadiakos in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 33% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.