Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Iraklis 1908 and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Kaftanzoglio Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Iraklis 1908's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Aris Thessalonikis arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Iraklis 1908 half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Iraklis 1908 50% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Iraklis 1908 25% | Aris Thessalonikis 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.30 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.676 / defence 1.255 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.061 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.004. Iraklis 1908's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Iraklis 1908's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Iraklis 1908 games / 29 Aris Thessalonikis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 33% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Iraklis 1908 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 33% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Iraklis 1908 1.30 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.676 / def 1.255 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.061 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Aris Thessalonikis xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 33% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Iraklis 1908's attack at 0.68x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.06x) against Iraklis 1908's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (4/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.10
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.64
1.34
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.34 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Iraklis 1908 have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 1.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Iraklis 1908.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Iraklis 1908 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Iraklis 1908 and 100% for Aris Thessalonikis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Iraklis 1908 have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Iraklis 1908's matches and 100% of Aris Thessalonikis's.
Do Iraklis 1908 and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.