Ionikos 1-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ionikos take on Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ionikos host Lamia at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ionikos — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ionikos's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ionikos at 1.30 PPG versus Lamia's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ionikos, 2 for Lamia and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Ionikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 54% versus Lamia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 51% | Lamia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.87 xG and Lamia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.830 / defence 1.263 | Lamia attack 0.739 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.024. Data: 32 Ionikos games / 32 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 29% | Draw 37% | Lamia 34%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Lamia 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 60% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 29% | Draw 37% | Lamia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Ionikos 0.87 / Lamia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.830 / def 1.263 | Lamia attack 0.739 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Lamia xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Lamia kick off?
Ionikos vs Lamia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Lamia?
Ionikos 1 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Ionikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Lamia part of?
Ionikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 29% chance of winning, Lamia a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ionikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): Ionikos 1W | Draws 0 | Lamia 2W.
What form are Ionikos and Lamia in?
Ionikos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.83) and Lamia's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.44
37%
2.70
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.82
0.96
Lamia xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 15.5 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.96 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ionikos's recent record stands at 12W 10D 17L from 39 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 19L across 39 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ionikos on 1.18 PPG, Lamia on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ionikos have managed 6W 6D 6L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamia's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ionikos are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.69 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Lamia have gone 8W 12D 19L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Lamia away?
Ionikos's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.33 PPG; Lamia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ionikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ionikos
2
Draws
2
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Lamia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 2, Lamia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Ionikos 2-2 Lamia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 56%, Lamia 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ionikos) and 28% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 39%; Ionikos have failed to score in 33% of games; Lamia in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ionikos's recent matches and 28% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ionikos's recent games and 28% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lamia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos and Lamia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos and Lamia finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.87 xG and Lamia 0.96 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against Lamia attack 0.74 / defence 0.81, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 29% | Draw 37% | Lamia 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 51%, Lamia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.18 PPG, Lamia 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.