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Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Atromitos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Atromitos 0-1 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.62 xG and Volos NFC 1.58 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Volos NFC attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 39% | Draw 24% | Volos NFC 37%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 49%, Volos NFC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Volos NFC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.27 PPG, Volos NFC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights