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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAOK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat PAOK 2-0 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.00 xG and PAOK 2.20 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAOK landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.75 / defence 1.14 against PAOK attack 1.56 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 16% | Draw 19% | PAOK 65%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Atromitos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 49%, PAOK 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

PAOK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Atromitos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights