Atromitos 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees PAOK travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atromitos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PAOK in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour PAOK, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Atromitos.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with PAOK winning.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAOK trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 60% versus PAOK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 46% | PAOK 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.13 xG and PAOK 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.023 / defence 0.999 | PAOK attack 1.158 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.251. Data: 28 Atromitos games / 28 PAOK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 29% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | PAOK 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 60% | PAOK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 29% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Atromitos 1.13 / PAOK 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.023 / def 0.999 | PAOK attack 1.158 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: PAOK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.45
PAOK xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs PAOK kick off?
Atromitos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Atromitos 1 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Atromitos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAOK part of?
Atromitos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 29% chance of winning, PAOK a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
Record (6 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 1 | PAOK 4W.
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in?
Atromitos (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.02x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.59
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.58
1.45
PAOK xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
14.85
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.45 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 7W 15D 13L from 35 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 25W 5D 5L across 35 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 5W 7D 5L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 11W 3D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.49 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAOK in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 7W 15D 13L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while PAOK have gone 25W 5D 5L in their last 35 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.29 PPG; PAOK away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Atromitos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, PAOK in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2024, when PAOK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
1
Draws
7
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, PAOK have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Atromitos 2-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 59%, PAOK 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Atromitos) and 71% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Atromitos's games and 71% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Atromitos's matches and 71% of PAOK's.
Do Atromitos and PAOK tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Atromitos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Atromitos 1-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.13 xG and PAOK 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against PAOK attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 29% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, PAOK 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.