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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atromitos and Panserraikos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos and Panserraikos finished level at 2-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.49 xG and Panserraikos 0.85 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Panserraikos outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.71 / defence 1.05 against Panserraikos attack 0.72 / defence 1.57, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 52% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 21%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, Panserraikos 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Panserraikos's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.21 PPG, Panserraikos 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights