🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Panserraikos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Panserraikos 1-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.49 xG and Panserraikos 1.15 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Panserraikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.41, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 45% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 29%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 52%, Panserraikos 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Panserraikos's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.11 PPG, Panserraikos 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights