🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Atromitos 1-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Relegation Group - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.07 xG and Panetolikos 0.95 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Panetolikos attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 36% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 29%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 48%, Panetolikos 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Panetolikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.30 PPG, Panetolikos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights