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Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atromitos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 0-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.84 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.18 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.05 / defence 0.70, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 26% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 47%, Olympiakos Piraeus 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights