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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Atromitos 1-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.31 xG and OFI 0.91 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. OFI outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.69 / defence 0.98 against OFI attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 46% | Draw 28% | OFI 26%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 47%, OFI 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

OFI's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.20 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights