🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Atromitos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Atromitos and Larisa drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.43 xG and Larisa 1.13 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Larisa attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 44% | Draw 27% | Larisa 30%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 25%, Larisa 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Larisa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.00 PPG, Larisa 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights