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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kifisia beat Atromitos 1-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.58 xG and Kifisia 1.50 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Kifisia attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 39% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 36%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Kifisia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 38%, Kifisia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Kifisia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.12 PPG, Kifisia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights