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Shock result as Kallithea defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kallithea beat Atromitos 1-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.13 xG and Kallithea 0.84 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Kallithea attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 31% | Kallithea 27%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 52%, Kallithea 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Kallithea's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atromitos arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Kallithea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights