Atromitos 1-2 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Kallithea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Kallithea travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Peristeriou this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kallithea have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kallithea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kallithea's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Atromitos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atromitos, 0 for Kallithea and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Atromitos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kallithea in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 52% versus Kallithea 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 52% | Kallithea 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.13 xG and Kallithea 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.870 / defence 1.082 | Kallithea attack 0.696 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.115. Data: 47 Atromitos games / 21 Kallithea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 31% | Kallithea 27%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Kallithea 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 60% | Kallithea 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 31% | Kallithea 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Atromitos 1.13 / Kallithea 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.870 / def 1.082 | Kallithea attack 0.696 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Kallithea xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Kallithea kick off?
Atromitos vs Kallithea kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Kallithea?
Atromitos 1 - 2 Kallithea.
Where is Atromitos vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Kallithea part of?
Atromitos vs Kallithea is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 42% chance of winning, Kallithea a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Atromitos and Kallithea will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Kallithea?
Record (1 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 0 | Kallithea 0W.
What form are Atromitos and Kallithea in?
Atromitos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Kallithea (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.87) and Kallithea's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kallithea's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.26
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Atromitos xG
Total xG
1.97
0.84
Kallithea xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.84 for Kallithea, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 4D 9L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kallithea sit at 0.71 PPG from 21 outings (2W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kallithea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Kallithea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Atromitos's home form reads 2W 2D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Kallithea have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (0W 5D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 0.86 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Kallithea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Kallithea in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 8W 4D 9L in their last 21 games (1.33 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 2W 9D 10L in their last 21 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Kallithea away?
Atromitos's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.80 PPG; Kallithea away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Atromitos
0
Draws
1
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Kallithea?
From 2 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 1, Kallithea have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Kallithea last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Atromitos 1-2 Kallithea.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 60%, Kallithea 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atromitos) and 30% (Kallithea).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 40% of games; Kallithea in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Kallithea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Atromitos's recent matches and 40% of Kallithea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Kallithea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atromitos's recent games and 30% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Kallithea tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kallithea in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kallithea defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kallithea beat Atromitos 1-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.13 xG and Kallithea 0.84 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Kallithea attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 31% | Kallithea 27%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 52%, Kallithea 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Kallithea's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atromitos arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Kallithea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.