🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Peristeri Stadium, Relegation Group - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.43 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.88 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 48% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 21%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 47%, Asteras Tripolis 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.29 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights