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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Atromitos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 0-1 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.20 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.95 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 29%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 49%, Asteras Tripolis 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.21 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights