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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Atromitos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 0-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Conference League Play-off Group - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.08 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.04 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 36% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 34%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 52%, Asteras Tripolis 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.20 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights