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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Atromitos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 0-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.25 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.03 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.88 / defence 1.14, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 41% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 30%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 51%, Asteras Tripolis 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.08 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights