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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 1-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.23 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 47%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.35 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights