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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Conference League Play-off Group - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.24 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 39% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights