Atromitos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 39%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Conference League Play-off Group - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Peristeriou — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Peristeriou this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Aris Thessalonikis have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Atromitos.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
It is worth noting that Aris Thessalonikis have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 56% versus Aris Thessalonikis 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.24 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.850 / defence 1.045 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.966 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 Atromitos games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 39% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Play-off Group - 4 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 39% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Atromitos 1.24 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.850 / def 1.045 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.966 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Aris Thessalonikis xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Atromitos 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Conference League Play-off Group - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 39% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (7 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 2 | Aris Thessalonikis 4W.
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.85) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.58
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.10 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 18W 18D 26L from 62 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 19L across 62 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 8W 9D 13L from 30 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 12W 6D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.32 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 18W 18D 26L in their last 62 games (1.16 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 30W 13D 19L in their last 62 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.10 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
4
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 57%, Aris Thessalonikis 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atromitos) and 37% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 43%; Atromitos have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atromitos's recent matches and 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atromitos's recent games and 37% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Conference League Play-off Group - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.24 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 39% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.