Atromitos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atromitos at 1.10 PPG versus Aris Thessalonikis's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Atromitos, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 58% versus Aris Thessalonikis 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 48% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.30 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.993 / defence 1.022 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.329. Data: 26 Atromitos games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 35% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 37%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Atromitos 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 35% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Atromitos 1.30 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.993 / def 1.022 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Aris Thessalonikis xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Atromitos 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 35% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (4 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.99) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
35%
2.82
27%
3.64
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.63
1.33
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.33 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 7W 13D 13L from 33 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. Atromitos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 11L across 33 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 5W 6D 5L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 7W 3D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.39 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Pre-Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 7W 13D 13L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 15W 7D 11L in their last 33 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.31 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
4
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atromitos) and 31% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 50%; Atromitos have failed to score in 38% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Atromitos's recent matches and 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atromitos's recent games and 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.30 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 35% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 37%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 48%, Aris Thessalonikis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.