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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atromitos and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos and AEK Athens FC finished level at 2-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.81 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.76, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 18% | Draw 28% | AEK Athens FC 54%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, AEK Athens FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights