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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Volos NFC 2-0 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.14 xG and Volos NFC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 34% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 38%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 47%, Volos NFC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Volos NFC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.12 PPG, Volos NFC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights