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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Panserraikos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Panserraikos 1-0 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Relegation Group - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.36 xG and Panserraikos 1.00 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Panserraikos attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 43% | Draw 32% | Panserraikos 26%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 48%, Panserraikos 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Panserraikos's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.12 PPG, Panserraikos 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights