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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Asteras Tripolis 1-2 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.52 xG and Panserraikos 0.85 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Panserraikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.34, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 53% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 21%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Panserraikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 52%, Panserraikos 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Panserraikos's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.26 PPG, Panserraikos 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights