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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Panetolikos 2-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Relegation Group - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.97 xG and Panetolikos 1.01 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 / defence 1.17 against Panetolikos attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, Panetolikos 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Panetolikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.08 PPG, Panetolikos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights