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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos finished level at 1-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.89 xG and Panetolikos 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.24 / defence 1.08 against Panetolikos attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 22% | Panetolikos 20%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 50%, Panetolikos 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Panetolikos's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.21 PPG, Panetolikos 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights