Asteras Tripolis vs Panathinaikos – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.93x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.06
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.09
1.00
Panathinaikos xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.00 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.