Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.60 for Olympiakos Piraeus. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 52% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 48% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.30 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.932 / defence 1.065 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.095 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 0.918. Data: 27 Asteras Tripolis games / 27 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Asteras Tripolis 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.30 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.932 / def 1.065 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.095 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.623 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 40% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (9 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 1W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 6W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.93x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.09x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.12
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.37
1.07
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.07 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 8W 11D 14L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 20W 9D 4L from 33 games, 2.09 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 9W 5D 2L from 16 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.58 scored and 0.52 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 8W 11D 14L in their last 33 games (1.06 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 20W 9D 4L in their last 33 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.38 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 50%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Asteras Tripolis) and 38% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.30 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 48%, Olympiakos Piraeus 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.