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Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 0-3 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.12 / defence 0.66, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 25% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights