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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Asteras Tripolis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat OFI 3-0 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 2.35 xG and OFI 1.40 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.24 / defence 1.19 against OFI attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 20% | OFI 22%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 51%, OFI 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

OFI's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.13 PPG, OFI 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights