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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat OFI 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat OFI 2-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Conference League Play-off Group - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.12 xG and OFI 1.24 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against OFI attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 33% | Draw 28% | OFI 39%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 51%, OFI 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

OFI's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.25 PPG, OFI 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights