Asteras Tripolis 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 44%, yet in-form OFI provide a compelling counter-argument — this Asteras Tripolis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Asteras Tripolis welcome OFI to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis in Super League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Asteras Tripolis stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Asteras Tripolis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
OFI — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, OFI have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. OFI's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Asteras Tripolis's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Asteras Tripolis in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 32% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 26% | OFI 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.38 xG and OFI 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.975 / defence 0.970 | OFI attack 1.071 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 0.893. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 27 games and OFI's last 27. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 44% | Draw 35% | OFI 22%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.29 | Draw 2.88 | OFI 4.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Asteras Tripolis's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 50% (last 10 home games) | OFI 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Asteras Tripolis 27 games, OFI 27) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 44% | Draw 35% | OFI 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.38 / OFI 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.975 / def 0.970 | OFI attack 1.071 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.467 / away 0.893 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.93
OFI xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI FAQs
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Asteras Tripolis 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 44% chance of winning, OFI a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.97x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Asteras Tripolis's last 27 games and OFI's last 27, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
44%
2.29
35%
2.88
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.30
0.93
OFI xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
18.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.93 for OFI, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 5W 16D 13L from 34 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 12L across 34 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 0.91 PPG, OFI on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 5W 9D 2L from their last 16 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 7W 4D 5L across their last 16 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.18 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Asteras Tripolis and OFI in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 16D 13L in their last 34 games (0.91 PPG), while OFI have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.50 PPG; OFI away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, OFI in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: OFI 2-2 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 38%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for Asteras Tripolis and 44% for OFI.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; OFI in 38%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Asteras Tripolis and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Asteras Tripolis and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 44% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 69% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Asteras Tripolis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat OFI 3-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.38 xG and OFI 0.93 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against OFI attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/27 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 44% | Draw 35% | OFI 22%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 26%, OFI 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 0.91 PPG, OFI 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.