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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.59 xG and Levadiakos 1.59 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against Levadiakos attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 38%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 48%, Levadiakos 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Levadiakos's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.25 PPG, Levadiakos 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights