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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Asteras Tripolis and Kifisia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Asteras Tripolis and Kifisia drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.91 xG and Kifisia 1.70 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.15 / defence 1.24 against Kifisia attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 43% | Draw 22% | Kifisia 35%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 67%, Kifisia 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Kifisia's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kifisia arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Asteras Tripolis scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights