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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Kallithea 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Kallithea 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.55 xG and Kallithea 0.72 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.11 / defence 0.86 against Kallithea attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 26% | Kallithea 17%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 47%, Kallithea 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kallithea's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights