Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos meet at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ionikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Ionikos have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 2 for Ionikos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Ionikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Ionikos — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 36% versus Ionikos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 27% | Ionikos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.26 xG and Ionikos 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.864 / defence 0.779 | Ionikos attack 0.989 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.101. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Asteras Tripolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Asteras Tripolis games / 38 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 42% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 21%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.38 | Draw 2.70 | Ionikos 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 30% | Ionikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Monday 14 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 42% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.26 / Ionikos 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.864 / def 0.779 | Ionikos attack 0.989 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ionikos xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 14 November 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 42% chance of winning, Ionikos a 21% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos?
Record (3 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 1 | Ionikos 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Ionikos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.99x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
42%
2.38
37%
2.71
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.10
0.85
Ionikos xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
6%
16.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.85 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 12W 15D 18L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos's form line: 13W 13D 19L from 45 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.16 for Ionikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 7W 4D 11L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.20 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Ionikos away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.36 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ionikos in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Ionikos have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ionikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
1
Draws
4
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Ionikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Ionikos 1-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos?
Ionikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 27%, Ionikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Asteras Tripolis and 46% for Ionikos.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 46% of games; Ionikos in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 54% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 46% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Ionikos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Ionikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Ionikos 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.26 xG and Ionikos 0.85 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ionikos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.86 / defence 0.78 against Ionikos attack 0.99 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 42% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 21%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 27%, Ionikos 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ionikos's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.13 PPG, Ionikos 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.