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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Atromitos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 4-2 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Relegation Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.92 xG and Atromitos 1.14 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atromitos outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Atromitos attack 0.92 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 27% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 39%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 48%, Atromitos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Atromitos's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.10 PPG, Atromitos 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights