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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Asteras Tripolis 1-4 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Conference League Play-off Group - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.05 xG and Atromitos 1.29 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Atromitos outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Atromitos attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 30% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 42%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 51%, Atromitos 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Atromitos's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.30 PPG, Atromitos 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights