🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Asteras Tripolis 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.18 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.63 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.83, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 28% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 48%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, AEK Athens FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights