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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Asteras Tripolis 0-3 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.96 / defence 0.76 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 30%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 52%, AEK Athens FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights