Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Volos NFC travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Aris Thessalonikis register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Volos NFC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Aris Thessalonikis have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 1 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Aris Thessalonikis and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Volos NFC trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 51% versus Volos NFC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Volos NFC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.55 xG and Volos NFC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.980 / defence 0.988 | Volos NFC attack 0.861 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 0.998. Data: 29 Aris Thessalonikis games / 29 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 17%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Volos NFC 5.88. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Volos NFC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.55 / Volos NFC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.980 / def 0.988 | Volos NFC attack 0.861 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.484 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Volos NFC xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 50% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Record (10 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 7W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.98) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
50%
1.99
33%
3.05
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.40
0.85
Volos NFC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
27.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.85 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 13W 13D 9L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC's form line: 9W 7D 19L from 35 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (6W 9D 2L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 4W 0D 13L from 17 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 13D 9L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 7D 19L in their last 35 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Volos NFC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.59 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Volos NFC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 53%, Volos NFC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 53% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 35% of games; Volos NFC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 47% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 53% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.