Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 9 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season.
PAOK (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Aris Thessalonikis's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of PAOK's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 3W, PAOK 4W, 3D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus PAOK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 39% | PAOK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.55 xG and PAOK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.011 / defence 1.000 | PAOK attack 1.195 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.917. Data: 30 Aris Thessalonikis games / 30 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 33% | PAOK 23%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | PAOK 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | PAOK 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 33% | PAOK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.55 / PAOK 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.011 / def 1.000 | PAOK attack 1.195 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.10
PAOK xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 44% chance of winning, PAOK a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
Record (10 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 3 | PAOK 4W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 1.01x the league average against PAOK's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.20x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
44%
2.26
33%
3.07
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.65
1.10
PAOK xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.10 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 13W 13D 10L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 5L across 36 games — 2.03 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 6W 9D 2L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 6W 6D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.89 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 13D 10L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while PAOK have gone 21W 10D 5L in their last 36 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAOK away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.59 PPG; PAOK away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PAOK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 53%, PAOK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 65% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 59% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 65% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.