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Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 19, as Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.09 xG and PAOK 1.47 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against PAOK attack 1.40 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 28% | Draw 26% | PAOK 46%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 44%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

PAOK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights